ArrowHead Services – Offerings

ArrowHead’s Service Offerings Help Companies Understand Future Markets for Better Decision Making

Our consulting services are flexible, based on understanding and meeting client needs

ArrowHead service offerings are not “off-the-shelf.” They are customized because client needs and perceptions are contextual and specific. There is no “off-the rack-suit” service here; instead, our services are fitted to your needs.

Clients have the option of using our base case assumptions and data or theirs

Any of our offerings can be provided for any of the ArrowHead Solutions using ArrowHead models. Clients are able to select our off-the-shelf base case models and assumptions or, at their request, selectively embed their own assumptions or data in place of ours. Our clients:

  • Review assumptions and/or data in the relevant ArrowHead Model(s)
  • Decide what assumptions and/or data will be replaced with client assumptions and/or data

Our experience has shown that clients want to understand what their assumptions and points of view imply about future markets.

Arrowhead Service Offerings

  • Outsourced Economic Analysis

    We provide outsourced economic market analysis across the range of ArrowHead Solutions. For any particular decision or issue (or for a general market forecast), Arrowhead consultants work with clients to understand their needs. Then we run ArrowHead Models to provide probability distributions of price and quantity to understand what these would look like under specific assumptions about market drivers and probabilities.Typical components of the analysis would be:

    1. Planning the analysis:
      1. Discussing the decision or issue the client is analyzing
      2. Deciding with the client:
        1. The assumptions and probabilities for each assumption to be used, ours or theirs
        2. The scenarios to be used
      3. Understanding formats for the output needed
    2. Running scenarios in the ArrowHead models and reviewing preliminary results
    3. Producing final model outputs and providing them in the format the client wants
    4. At client request:
      1. Performing additional analysis on model outputs
      2. Providing recommendations and conclusions
      3. Providing a presentation or written report on results, analysis, and conclusions

In contrast to “enterprise” software, ArrowHead offers cloud-based solutions that provide clients access to all model inputs and outputs. This sidesteps all the IT problems that plague “enterprise” software approaches. Our consultants use our unique cloud-based models (optionally by client option their data and assumptions or ours) and their expertise to perform the economic analysis. You have all the flexibility and transparency of enterprise software with none of the headache.

  • Outsourced Decision Analysis

    ArrowHead provides outsourced decision analysis across the wide group of ArrowHead Solutions. Arrowhead consultants work with clients to understand the decision they are facing and the portion of the analysis they want ArrowHead to provide. Decision analysis generally extends the scope of Outsourced Economic Analysis to include decision recommendations and acid testing. Typical decision analysis includes the following:

    1. Recommending assumptions and probabilities and scenarios to use
    2. Running scenarios in the ArrowHead models and analyzing the results
    3. Reviewing results and analysis with the client
    4. Producing pro formas (or optionally use client pro formas) for analysis of the decision (i.e., inserting model outputs into pro formas and determining profitability)
    5. Providing recommendations and conclusions
    6. Creating and delivering a presentation of the results, analysis, and conclusions and/or recommendations

    This can be valuable in cases where clients want top quality science applied to their decision and want an independent third party analysis and/or recommendation.

  • Expert Testimony

    Our consultants have considerable experience providing expert testimony in a variety of types of cases, where knowledge of any of the following is required:

    1. Markets, how they work and where they are going
    2. Economics
    3. Regulations and incentives
    4. Methods for producing accurate, transparent, and defensible projections of market behavior

    As part of this service, our consultants can provide any of the Outsourced Economic Analysis or Outsourced Decision Analysis as required.

  • Market and Economic Education

    Understanding markets and economics requires deep knowledge and education. ArrowHead offers extensive management and staff training in a variety of areas, ranging from the most basic economic fundamentals to advanced topics. ArrowHead education includes:

    1. Market structure (e.g., supply chains, competitiveness, market power)
    2. Market drivers
    3. How markets really work and what markets really are
    4. Correct methodology for modeling and quantifying market agents and their behavior
    5. Comparison and pitfalls of lesser, ad hoc, or statistical approaches
    6. Theory of consumption (demand)
      Theory of depletable resource supply
    7. Capital stock turnover (capital formation)
    8. Expectations
    9. Markets under uncertainty
    10. Arbitrage

    ArrowHead education is tailored for companies who want to truly understand price, price formation, markets, and policies and to know what they are talking about on those issues. ArrowHead provides one day and three day education programs. Courses are matched to the level of the audience, whether executive or hands-on analyst, whether sophisticated or novice.

  • Probability and Uncertainty Education

    When you ask people: “What was the hardest course you ever took in college?” The answer universally comes back emphatically: “Probability!” Probability is not a “fool’s game;” one doesn’t simply “whip” probabilities into his or her model or analysis. People need training. Dr. Nesbitt of ArrowHead was an early member of the famed Decision Analysis Group at Stanford Research Institute—the birthplace of decision and risk analysis—and from the probability and risk program of Dr. Ronald Howard of Stanford University. He lectured and conducted probabilistic analysis and modeling in that group for many years and delivered their decision analysis training program.ArrowHead offers a decision and probability analysis seminar and educational program, which is specifically tailored to (but not limited to) explicating how probabilities and markets intermix. What is hedging? What is a “security?” What if agents have probability distributions over market drivers? What happens in markets as uncertainties resolve? How does uncertainty catalyze arbitrage? Why does Monte Carlo not work in economic models? The course is a day and a half in length and the last half day training provides problem solving and examples.