About ArrowHead – A Unique Analytic Services Company

Over 30 Years Helping Clients Understand Future Commodity Markets and Make Correct Decisions

Unique fundamental commodity models and experienced knowledgeable market experts

ArrowHead is a unique consulting services and software analytics company. We help clients understand future commodity markets to facilitate better decision making and to help them assess the impacts of potential market events on the markets and on their businesses. The types of decisions (e.g., capital investments and trades) and issues (e.g., regulatory change and events affecting supply) are detailed in ArrowHead Solutions.

Long History of Helping Companies Make the Right Decisions

Our business is built on over 30 years of predecessor companies (including Stanford Research Institute, Decision Focus, Inc., Altos Management Partners, and MarketPoint, Inc.). Our models were initially developed in these companies with a unique methodology that used sound economic principles and that matched the way markets work both operationally and competitively. The models have been continuously improved over that time period improving their accuracy in matching the way markets work and keeping pace with market changes and technology enhancements. Similarly, our consultants have worked for many years using our models (and the previous model versions) analyzing markets and helping clients understand the impact of potential events on markets and their businesses. This has been a long history  of helping clients make the right decisions while maintaining confidentiality about their proprietary information and business practices.

Our Unique Models

Our consultants use our comprehensive models, which are unique in a number of ways but primarily in that they accurately represent market structure, operational and competitive characteristics of each market participant, and market uncertainty in an integrated, mathematically sound way. Outputs are probability distributions over future commodity prices and quantities that would result under specific assumptions about market drivers and about probabilities for various uncertain states. Our models are transparent so clients can easily see and understand model methodology, assumptions used, and market structure and data in our models. (There is more detail on what makes ArrowHead models unique at Models).

ArrowHead models are flexible in that they can be used to analyze a wide variety of market issues, supporting many different types of decisions, and they can be easily adjusted to represent changes in market structure or client assumptions and probabilities. The outputs of our fundamental economic models provide the inputs to the pro formas for a wide variety of business applications (ArrowHead Solutions). All these reasons combine to give clients a high degree of confidence in our results.

More on What Differentiates ArrowHead

ArrowHead differentiators are listed in more detail on the Why ArrowHead page of our website, and these differentiators have become core principals of our company.

Key ArrowHead Business Principles

  1. Our top three priorities are:
    1. Understanding client needs and issues and meeting these needs
    2. Keeping client information confidential
    3. Working flexibly with clients in our service offerings and our business practices
  2. Understanding future markets requires fundamental economic modeling with models that are:
    1. Comprehensive and accurate in representing market structure and operational and competitive characteristics
    2. Built on sound economic principles
    3. Transparent so that the methodology, assumptions, market structure, and market data can be easily viewed and understood
    4. Flexible so as to represent any market event and easily accommodate changes in assumptions and probabilities related to those assumptions
    5. Able to represent uncertainty about market assumptions and solve in a single integrated model run
    6. Secure, so that proprietary data is confidential.
  3. We use consultants who are:
    1. Committed to our business principles
    2. Knowledgeable with deep experience in:
      1. The markets they analyze
      2. Using our models to help clients confidently understand future markets to make more informed decisions and to better assess the impact of potential future events on their businesses