About ArrowHead – Why ArrowHead?

Over 30 Years Helping Clients Understand Future Commodity Markets and Make Correct Decisions

Understanding Future Commodity Markets Is Difficult and Critical to Making the Right Decisions

There are many methods used for making decisions that require insightful assessment of future commodity prices and quantities and understanding of what those markets might do under various combinations of assumptions about different potential future market events or changes in market drivers. Many people use multiple methods and sources of input. With the exception of our models, none alone have been satisfactory:

  • Other methods/sources have proven to be strikingly inaccurate.
  • Markets are complex and interrelated, and other methods do not include consideration (in an integrated way) of uncertainty about the likelihood of potential events or changes to market drivers .
  • Most other modeling methods are not able to represent market complexity and the operational and competitive characteristics of the market agents.
  • With individual consultants, industry “experts”, and published sources, there is little transparency regarding method(s) and assumptions. Even if there is some transparency, consumers of the information may not agree with (or even know) the assumptions used; they are flying blind.
  • Developing in-house methods requires protracted development time, can be expensive to implement and maintain (both modeling and IT), and have not proven effective. This has been true even when large companies have attempted to build and maintain their own staff.

ArrowHead differentiates entirely from these choices providing accurate representation of future markets, experienced market experts to help in applying these market analyses to making decisions, and model transparency so that clients have confidence in results and decisions.

Why Should You Consider Working with ArrowHead?

  1. Our market experts:
    1. Have years of successful experience analyzing markets and helping clients make the right decisions
    2. Guard the confidentiality of your information as a top priority with structured processes and absolute determination
    3. Focus on understanding your needs and issues, and thereafter help to analyze them applying the results to aid your decision making
    4. Utilize a unique fundamental modeling solution (Models) that:
      1. Has been improved over more than 30 years and uses a methodology that has helped clients make the right decisions over that entire time
      2. Comprehensively and accurately represents the full structure of markets and the way they work operationally and competitively under various combinations of assumptions about:
        • Market drivers
        • Potential market events
      3. Represents the complexity and especially the integrated and global nature of the markets
      4. Represents uncertainty, outputting probability distributions over prices and quantities at every market point at every point in time during the time horizon of the analysis
      5. Provides transparency that gives clients confidence in the results
  2. ArrowHead is built on treating clients as business partners:
    1. Seeking to understand and meet client needs
    2. Providing flexibility in how we do business:
      1. Providing services that match scope needed rather than imposing a larger or smaller scope for ArrowHead benefit
      2. Working with clients’ methods and guidelines for doing business
    3. Providing high standards of service and professionalism:
      1. Maintaining client confidentiality
      2. Utilizing modeling technologies that accurately represent the marketplace