Issues and Insights – Understanding Regional and Global Natural Gas

Galway Energy Advisors, LLC and ArrowHead Economics invite you to a Houston presentation and discussion.

Meeting and Discussion Overview

Our market experts will present:

  • An analytically based view of the state of the natural gas markets
  • Key issues driving the gas market and what will their impact be on gas prices and flows, such as:
    • Supply in areas such as Eagle Ford and Burgos Basin
    • Will LNG be exported/imported? Where and what price?
    • With low reserves in ERCOT, will natural gas burn increase and how will it impact natural gas prices and other issues?
  • What new/proposed pipeline is marketable, competitive, and “in the money?”

Additional details on the content below.

Meeting Logistic Details

Location: 3050 Post Oak Bouldevard, Suite 1300, Houston
Date: Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Time: 3:00 PM to 3:15 PM CT Arrival and refreshments
3:15 PM to 4:15 PM CT – Presentation and discussion

Meeting Content Details

The future of natural gas in North America is undergoing dramatic changes and is in a state of huge uncertainty.  In the gulf coast region of the United States prices have been low but are firming while mid-continent, Rockies, and Western Canadian prices continue to lag.  Gulf coast LPG prices (which offset gas production costs) have been high but falling.  We are about to hit the light oil “blend wall” in PADD 3 (and elsewhere), meaning we have too much light oil on the market, and refineries cannot take any more light oil without substantial erosion in operating cost and refinery margin.

  • Federal offshore leasing has all but ground to a halt under the current administration.  What happens when and if that resumes?
  • The Burgos Basin in Northeastern Mexico might or might not have prolific quantities of conventional or shale gas.  What does that mean to U.S. gulf coast volumes and prices?
  • The Eagle Ford and other wet shale basins have been prolific, the sweet spots have been initiated, and NGL price has been high.  What are the resource, cost, and liquid byproduct implications of the Eagle Ford?
  • Is it acceptable to “just assume” that future prices of gas will remain low because they have been low the past 2-3 years? What is the current forward market trading view and range of uncertainty and what is driving the uncertainty?
  • Is there going to be LNG exported from the US gulf coast and how much will this be?  Who is going to buy it?  At what price?  Where are prices going in China, Japan, Korea, and Europe?
  • Is there going to be LNG imported into North America in the more distant future, i.e., a return to the perceptions of the early 2000s and before, and how much and how seasonal will this be?
  • What does the conventional gas resource base look like in and around the U.S. gulf coast?  What about the world as a whole?
  • Texas and Louisiana have sent gas to the Midwest and Northeast historically.  Will that continue, or will they have shale and other sources of their own that backs gas up into Texas?
  • How much gas burn will really occur in the electric power sector?  If there is a high burn, will that draw gas away from LNG exports?  Will that stress a growing supply system and raise prices?
  • What new pipeline capacity will enter North America?  What new pipeline capacity is marketable, competitive, and “in the money?”  What proposed pipeline capacity is unprofitable and therefore a “paper tiger?”

Our Presenters

Dr. Dale Nesbitt, President of ArrowHead Economics, LLC, a Stanford University professor in Economics and Decision analysis, and one of the top energy market experts and modeling innovators, will talk about the fundamental issues and insights facing ERCOT. Dr. Nesbitt has worked with the top energy companies for over three decades helping them to make correct decisions through better understanding of future markets. He has continuously improved his modeling capability over that time, which is unique in its ability to: accurately represent market competitive and operational behavior under assumptions about market drivers and to integrate probabilistic and deterministic modeling.

Mr. Robert Stibolt, Senior Managing Director at Galway Group, LP will comment on forward trading market views and ranges of uncertainty with special attention addressed to the competitive dynamics of LNG in the post 2020 world. Mr. Stibolt has over 30 years’ experience providing economic evaluation/risk analysis for upstream oil/gas exploration and development opportunities, merchant power and LNG project development, long-dated structured energy transactions, energy trading, and risk management. He has been CRO/Senior VP at companies including Southern Natural (Sonat), Suez/Tractebel, Bear Energy, and JP Morgan Energy.