Issues and Insights – Understanding Regional and Global Natural Gas

Galway Energy Advisors, LLC and ArrowHead Economics invite you to a webinar executive briefing and discussion.

Meeting and Discussion Overview

Our market experts will present and discuss:

  • An accurate model-based view of natural gas prices, quantities, and capacity/reserve additions
  • Key issues driving the gas market and what will be their impact on gas prices and flows, such as:
    • Supply in areas, such as Eagle Ford, Marcellus, British Columbia, Gulf, and other locations
    • Located price in each region and basis between regions
    • Will LNG be exported/imported? Where and what price? Will anyone oversees want it?
    • In the North American generation sector, will natural gas consumption increase? How would such an increase impact natural gas prices?
  • What new/proposed pipelines are marketable, competitive, and “in the money,” and which will likely never make it?

These briefings were designed to be timely and current for today’s decisions.

Additional details on the content below.

Meeting Logistic Details

Location: Online Webinar
Date: Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Time: 12:00 PM to 1:00 PM CT (1 to 2 PM ET/10 to 11 AM PT)

Meeting Content Details

U.S. nd global natural gas continue in a state of mammoth uncertainty. North American prices have been low but are firming. LPG prices (which offset gas production costs) have been high but falling. We may be about to hit the light oil “blend wall” in our refineries, meaning we have too much light oil on the market. Refineries cannot take any more light oil without erosion in operating cost and refinery margin, and we cannot export crude at present.

  • Federal onshore and offshore leasing has all but ground to a halt. What happens when/if that resumes?
  • Northeastern Mexico might yield substantial shale or conventional gas. What does that portend for Texas prices and/or imports and/o exports? What does that portend for U.S. gulf coast volumes and prices?
  • Is it acceptable to “just assume” that future prices of gas will remain low because they have been low the past 2-3 years? What is the current forward market trading view and range of uncertainty and what is driving the uncertainty?
  • Is there going to be LNG exported from North America (Gulf, East Coast, West Coast)? How much? Who is going to buy it? At what price? Where are prices headed in China, Japan, Korea, and Europe?
  • Is there going to be LNG imported into North America in the more distant future, i.e., a return to the perceptions of the early 2000s? How much and how seasonal?
  • What does the conventional gas resource base look like in North America? Regionally throughout the world as a whole?
  • Gulf Coast gas has gone to the Midwest and Northeast historically. Will that continue, or will they have shale and other sources of their own that backs gas up into the Gulf Coast?
  • How much gas burn will really occur in the electric power sector? If there is a high burn, will that draw gas away from LNG exports? Will that firm prices to the point that LNG exports are threatened?
  • What new pipeline capacity will enter North America? What new pipeline capacity is marketable, competitive, and “in the money?” What proposed pipeline capacity is unprofitable and therefore a “paper tiger?”

Our Presenters

Dr. Dale Nesbitt, President of ArrowHead Economics, LLC, a Stanford University professor in Economics and Decision analysis, and one of the top energy market experts and modeling innovators, will talk about the fundamental issues and insights facing ERCOT. Dr. Nesbitt has worked with the top energy companies for over three decades helping them to make correct decisions through better understanding of future markets. He has continuously improved his modeling capability over that time, which is unique in its ability to: accurately represent market competitive and operational behavior under assumptions about market drivers and to integrate probabilistic and deterministic modeling.

Mr. Robert Stibolt, Senior Managing Director at Galway Group, LP will comment on forward trading market views and ranges of uncertainty with special attention addressed to the competitive dynamics of LNG in the post 2020 world. Mr. Stibolt has over 30 years’ experience providing economic evaluation/risk analysis for upstream oil/gas exploration and development opportunities, merchant power and LNG project development, long-dated structured energy transactions, energy trading, and risk management. He has been CRO/Senior VP at companies including Southern Natural (Sonat), Suez/Tractebel, Bear Energy, and JP Morgan Energy.


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